cert-governance · severity low

Certificate lifetime

Share of certificates issued for longer than the 47-day maximum lifetime.

Measured every Saturday · last updated

How it is measured

Tier 1. Validity window of the serving certificate. Denominator: has_web.

Why it matters

The CA/Browser Forum is phasing certificate lifetimes down to 47 days. Any domain still on long-lived certificates has a manual renewal process that is about to break several times a year — a deadline-driven quiet failure that has not fired yet.

The base rate

Two independent populations. The global, domain-anchored figure is unbiased; the company-anchored figures are built by matching company names to domains and skew toward more digitally-mature firms. Both are published, so the gap is visible.

Global (all domains) 13.51% fail · n=13,313
ready (≤47d): 86.49%longer than 47d: 13.51%
France companies 19.26% fail · n=540
ready (≤47d): 80.74%longer than 47d: 19.26%
UK companies 29.43% fail · n=1,957
ready (≤47d): 70.57%longer than 47d: 29.43%
Norway companies 10.25% fail · n=810
ready (≤47d): 89.75%longer than 47d: 10.25%
ready (≤47d) · 89.75%longer than 47d · 10.25%

By company size band

Company-anchored cuts (national registries with a size proxy), split by size band. Right-hand figure is the share not meeting the control.

France
micron=167
ready (≤47d): 88.02%longer than 47d: 11.98%
11.98%
smalln=165
ready (≤47d): 81.82%longer than 47d: 18.18%
18.18%
mediumn=123
ready (≤47d): 76.42%longer than 47d: 23.58%
23.58%
UK
micron=169
ready (≤47d): 69.23%longer than 47d: 30.77%
30.77%
smalln=696
ready (≤47d): 69.97%longer than 47d: 30.03%
30.03%
medium/largen=778
ready (≤47d): 71.21%longer than 47d: 28.79%
28.79%
dormantn=145
ready (≤47d): 66.9%longer than 47d: 33.1%
33.1%
no-accountsn=169
ready (≤47d): 74.56%longer than 47d: 25.44%
25.44%
Norway
micron=232
ready (≤47d): 91.38%longer than 47d: 8.62%
8.62%
smalln=218
ready (≤47d): 94.5%longer than 47d: 5.5%
5.5%
mediumn=220
ready (≤47d): 87.73%longer than 47d: 12.27%
12.27%
largen=140
ready (≤47d): 82.86%longer than 47d: 17.14%
17.14%

Every segment

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From the newsletter

Where this base rate turned up as a real, fixable exposure.

Slices below 100 measured members are withheld rather than shown with a wide interval — an absent country or issuer means too little data, not zero failures. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Machine-readable data per segment: append .json or .csv to its URL.