cert-governance · severity high

Certificate expiry

Share of web-serving domains whose TLS certificate expires within 30 days, or has already expired.

Measured every Wednesday · last updated

How it is measured

Tier 2, one TLS handshake; read not_after. Denominator: has_web.

Why it matters

The certificate nobody owns. Expiry is a scheduled, entirely predictable outage that still takes sites down constantly, because renewal was somebody's manual task and that somebody left.

The base rate

Two independent populations. The global, domain-anchored figure is unbiased; the company-anchored figures are built by matching company names to domains and skew toward more digitally-mature firms. Both are published, so the gap is visible.

Global (all domains) 7.12% fail · n=13,352
valid (>30d): 92.88%expiring <30d: 7.12%
France companies 9.82% fail · n=550
valid (>30d): 90.18%expiring <30d: 9.82%
UK companies 8.53% fail · n=1,969
valid (>30d): 91.47%expiring <30d: 8.53%
Norway companies 8.68% fail · n=806
valid (>30d): 91.32%expiring <30d: 8.68%
valid (>30d) · 91.32%expiring <30d · 8.68%

By company size band

Company-anchored cuts (national registries with a size proxy), split by size band. Right-hand figure is the share not meeting the control.

France
micron=164
valid (>30d): 87.8%expiring <30d: 12.2%
12.2%
smalln=169
valid (>30d): 91.12%expiring <30d: 8.88%
8.88%
mediumn=126
valid (>30d): 88.89%expiring <30d: 11.11%
11.11%
UK
micron=171
valid (>30d): 91.23%expiring <30d: 8.77%
8.77%
smalln=698
valid (>30d): 91.83%expiring <30d: 8.17%
8.17%
medium/largen=785
valid (>30d): 90.96%expiring <30d: 9.04%
9.04%
dormantn=146
valid (>30d): 90.41%expiring <30d: 9.59%
9.59%
no-accountsn=169
valid (>30d): 93.49%expiring <30d: 6.51%
6.51%
Norway
micron=233
valid (>30d): 91.42%expiring <30d: 8.58%
8.58%
smalln=215
valid (>30d): 91.63%expiring <30d: 8.37%
8.37%
mediumn=219
valid (>30d): 92.24%expiring <30d: 7.76%
7.76%
largen=139
valid (>30d): 89.21%expiring <30d: 10.79%
10.79%

Every segment

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From the newsletter

Where this base rate turned up as a real, fixable exposure.

Slices below 100 measured members are withheld rather than shown with a wide interval — an absent country or issuer means too little data, not zero failures. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Machine-readable data per segment: append .json or .csv to its URL.