cert-governance · severity high

Certificate expiry

Share of web-serving domains whose TLS certificate expires within 30 days, or has already expired.

Measured every Wednesday · last updated

How it is measured

Tier 2, one TLS handshake; read not_after. Denominator: has_web.

Why it matters

The certificate nobody owns. Expiry is a scheduled, entirely predictable outage that still takes sites down constantly, because renewal was somebody's manual task and that somebody left.

The base rate

Two independent populations. The global, domain-anchored figure is unbiased; the company-anchored figures are built by matching company names to domains and skew toward more digitally-mature firms. Both are published, so the gap is visible.

Global (all domains) 6.43% fail · n=13,196
valid (>30d): 93.57%expiring <30d: 6.43%
France companies 6.42% fail · n=545
valid (>30d): 93.58%expiring <30d: 6.42%
UK companies 6.74% fail · n=1,943
valid (>30d): 93.26%expiring <30d: 6.74%
Norway companies 7.07% fail · n=778
valid (>30d): 92.93%expiring <30d: 7.07%
valid (>30d) · 92.93%expiring <30d · 7.07%

By company size band

Company-anchored cuts (national registries with a size proxy), split by size band. Right-hand figure is the share not meeting the control.

France
micron=146
valid (>30d): 93.84%expiring <30d: 6.16%
6.16%
smalln=164
valid (>30d): 95.12%expiring <30d: 4.88%
4.88%
mediumn=128
valid (>30d): 89.84%expiring <30d: 10.16%
10.16%
largen=107
valid (>30d): 95.33%expiring <30d: 4.67%
4.67%
UK
micron=184
valid (>30d): 94.57%expiring <30d: 5.43%
5.43%
smalln=721
valid (>30d): 92.93%expiring <30d: 7.07%
7.07%
medium/largen=736
valid (>30d): 93.75%expiring <30d: 6.25%
6.25%
dormantn=147
valid (>30d): 90.48%expiring <30d: 9.52%
9.52%
no-accountsn=155
valid (>30d): 93.55%expiring <30d: 6.45%
6.45%
Norway
micron=223
valid (>30d): 90.58%expiring <30d: 9.42%
9.42%
smalln=197
valid (>30d): 92.89%expiring <30d: 7.11%
7.11%
mediumn=218
valid (>30d): 92.66%expiring <30d: 7.34%
7.34%
largen=140
valid (>30d): 97.14%expiring <30d: 2.86%
2.86%

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From the newsletter

Where this base rate turned up as a real, fixable exposure.

Slices below 100 measured members are withheld rather than shown with a wide interval — an absent country or issuer means too little data, not zero failures. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Machine-readable data per segment: append .json or .csv to its URL.